Outer space in the context of emerging hybrid strategies
Abstract
Traditionally regarded as a peaceful and scarcely explored domain, outer space is now undergoing a significant transformation that places it at the forefront of global strategic considerations. The increasing militarisation and weaponisation of space signal a substantial shift in the nature of space activities, which are no longer limited to civil or scientific purposes. Within this evolving context, outer space is being redefined as a domain conducive to the deployment of hybrid strategies, employed by various actors to pursue political and military objectives. This transformation is gradually eroding the long-standing perception of outer space as a neutral and stable environment. This analysis explores the factors that make outer space a crucial scenario for hybrid threats, examining aspects that enable space actors to increase their political and strategic influence while addressing the growing threat to space stability.
Downloads
References
Abdyraeva, C. (2020). The Use of Cyberspace in the Context of Hybrid Warfare: Means, Challenges and Trends. Österreichisches Institut für Internationale Politik (oiip). Social Science Open Access Repository SSOAR. https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:0168-ssoar-69232-1
Altman, D. (2018). Advancing without Attacking: The strategic game around the use of force. security studies. Security Studies, 27(1), 58-88. https://doi.org/10.1080/09636412.2017.1360074
Baqués-Quesada, J. (2023). Is Morocco operating a grey zone in Ceuta and Melilla? Defence Studies, 23(2), 198-214. https://doi.org/10.1080/14702436.2022.2159815
Berdal, M. (2011). The “new wars” thesis revisited in H. Strachan (Ed.) and S. Scheipers (Ed.), The Changing Character of War (pp. 109-133). Oxford University Press. https://doi.org/10.1093/acprof:osobl/9780199596737.003.0007
Bittencourt-Neto, O. O. (2017). Delimitation of outer space and Earth orbits in Y. Abul-Failat and A. Ferreira-Anyman (Eds.), Outer space law legal policy and practice (pp. 43-51). Globe Law and Business Ltd.
Bull, H. (1968). Strategic studies and its critics. World Politics, 20(4), 593-605. https://doi.org/10.2307/2009685
Caliskan, M. (2019). Hybrid warfare through the lens of strategic theory. Defense & Security Analysis, 35(1), 40-58. https://doi.org/10.1080/14751798.2019.1565364
Caliskan, M. y Liégeois, M. (2021). The concept of ‘hybrid warfare’ undermines NATO’s strategic thinking: insights from interviews with NATO officials. Small Wars & Insurgencies, 32(2), 295-319. https://doi.org/10.1080/09592318.2020.1860374
Cavaleri, D. P. (2005). The Law of War: can 20th-Century Standards Apply to the Global War on Terrorism? Combat Studies Institute Press. https://www.govinfo.gov/app/details/GOVPUB-D110-PURL-LPS73506
Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation. (2022). Outer Space Treaty. armscontrolcenter.org. https://armscontrolcenter.org/outer-space-treaty/
Chabert, V. (2023). The Outer-Space Dimension of the Ukraine Conflict: Toward a New Paradigm for Orbits as a War Domain? Journal of International Affairs, 75(2). https://jia.sipa.columbia.edu/content/outer-space-dimension-ukraine-conflict-toward-new-paradigm-orbits-war-domain
Clark, C. (2016). CJCS Dunford calls for strategic shifts; ‘At peace or at war is insufficient’. Breaking Defense. https://breakingdefense.com/2016/09/cjcs-dunford-calls-for-strategic-shifts-at-peace-or-at-war-is-insufficient/
Clausewitz, V. C. (1976). On War. Princeton University Press. https://doi.org/10.1515/9781400837403-006 https://doi.org/10.1515/9781400837403
Cox, D. G., Bruscino, T. y Ryan, A. (2012). Why hybrid warfare is tactics not strategy: a rejoinder to “future threats and strategic thinking”. Infinity Journal, 2(2), 25-29. https://doi.org/10.64148/msm.v2i2.5
Dziwisz, D. (2022). Non-war activities in cyberspace as a factor driving the process of de-bordering. Politics and Governance, 10(2), 293-302. https://doi.org/10.17645/pag.v10i2.5015
Ferreira-Snyman, A. (2021). Challenges to the Prohibition on Sovereignty in Outer Space - A New Frontier for Space Governance. Potchefstroom Electronic Law Journal (PELJ), 24, 1-50. https://doi.org/10.17159/1727-3781/2021/v24i0a8685
Fischerkeller, M. P. (2020). Strategic Choice in Cyberspace: The Fait Accompli and Persistent Engagement. Defense Technical Information Center DTIC. https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/html/trecms/AD1212752/index.html
Franzese, P. W. (2009). Sovereignty in cyberspace: can it exist? The Air Force Law Review, 64, 1-42. https://www.proquest.com/docview/195182873?sourcetype=Trade%20Journals
Garnett, J. (1975). Strategic studies and its assumptions in J. Baylis, K. Booth, J. Garnett. and P. Williams (Eds.), Contemporary Strategy. Theories and Policies (1st edition, pp. 3-21). Routledge. https://doi.org/10.4324/9781003104339
Geers, K. (2015). Cyber war in perspective: Russian aggression against Ukraine. NATO Cooperative Cyber Defence Centre of Excellence. https://ccdcoe.org/library/publications/cyber-war-in-perspective-russian-aggression-against-ukraine/
General Assembly of the United Nations. (2021). Report of the Secretary-General on reducing space threats through norms, rules and principles of responsible behaviors (2021). United Nations - Office for Disarmament Affairs. https://disarmament.unoda.org/topics/outerspace-sg-report-outer-space-2021/
General Assembly of the United Nations. (2023). Debate on disarmament aspects of outer space exposes first committee rift over ways to sustain space security, prevent domain’s weaponization. Seventy-eighth session, 17th meeting, ga/dis/3723 UNGA. https://press.un.org/en/2023/gadis3723.doc.htm
Gerhard, M. (2009). Article VI. In S. Hobe, B. Schmidt-Tedd, K.-U. Schrogl, G. M. Goh, R. M. Aguilar, & R. Popova (Eds.), Comentario de Colonia al Derecho del Espacio. Tratado del Espacio (1st, 44558th ed., pp. 181–222). Dykinson, S.L. https://doi.org/10.2307/j.ctv2s0jc9s.20
Gray, C. S. (1999). Modern Strategy. Oxford University Press.
Gunneriusson, H. U. (2021). Hybrid warfare: development, historical context, challenges and interpretations. Revista ICONO14, 19(1), 15-37. https://doi.org/10.7195/ri14.v19i1.1608
Hoffman, F. G. (2007). Conflict in the 21st century: the rise of hybrid wars. Potomac Institute for Policy Studies.
Hollingham, R. (2013). What would happen if all satellites stopped working? British Broadcasting Corporation BBC. https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20130609-the-day-without-satellites
Johnson-Freese, J. (2007). Space as a strategic asset. Columbia University Press. https://doi.org/10.7312/john13654
Kaldor, M. (2010). Inconclusive wars: is Clausewitz still relevant in these global times? Global Policy, 1(3), 271-281. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1758-5899.2010.00041.x
Klein, J. J. y Boensch, N. J. (2024). Newspace and new risks in space security in S. N. Pekkanen and P. J. Blount (Eds.), The oxford handbook of space security (pp. 761-782). Oxford University Press. https://doi.org/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780197582671.013.42
Libicki, M. C. (2020). Correlations between cyberspace attacks and kinetic attacks in T. Jančárková., L. Lindström., M. Signoretti., I. Tolga. and G. Visky. (Eds.), 12th International Conference on Cyber Conflict 20/20 Vision: The Next Decade (pp. 199-213). The NATO Cooperative Cyber Defence Centre of Excellence CCDCOE. https://doi.org/10.23919/CyCon49761.2020.9131731
Libiseller, C. (2023). ‘Hybrid warfare’ as an academic fashion. Journal of Strategic Studies, 46(4), 858-880. https://doi.org/10.1080/01402390.2023.2177987
London Economics. (2017). The economic impact on the UK of a disruption to GNSS. londoneconomics.co.uk. https://londoneconomics.co.uk/blog/publication/economic-impact-uk-disruption-gnss/
Lonsdale, D. J. y Kane, T. M. (2020). Understanding Contemporary Strategy. Second edition. Routledge/Taylor & Francis Group. https://doi.org/10.4324/9781315163536
Maschmeyer, L. (2023). Assessing hybrid war: separating facts from fiction. CSS Analyses in Security Policy, 332. https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000638728
Moltz, J. C. (2014). Crowded orbits. Conflict and cooperation in space. Columbia University Press. https://doi.org/10.7312/columbia/9780231159128.001.0001 https://doi.org/10.7312/molt15912
Morgan, F. E. (2010). Deterrence and first-strike stability in space: a preliminary assessment. Defense Technical Information Center DTIC. https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/citations/ADA522541
National Air and Space Intelligence Center. (2018). Competing in space. nasic.af.mil. https://www.nasic.af.mil/About-Us/Fact-Sheets/Article/1738710/competing-in-space/
Neger, T. y Walter, E. (2011). Space law - an independent branch of the legal system in C. Brünner and A. Soucek (Eds.), Outer Space in Society, Politics and Law. (1st ed., pp. 234-245). Springer.
North Atlantic Treaty Organization. (2021). Brussels Summit Communiqué. Issued by the Heads of State and Government participating in the meeting of the North Atlantic Council in Brussels 14 June 2021. nato.int. https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_185000.htm
Pekkanen, S. M. (2019). Governing the New Space Race. AJIL Unbound - American Journal of International Law, 113, 92-97. https://doi.org/10.1017/aju.2019.16
Pražák, J. (2021). Dual-use conundrum: towards the weaponization of outer space? Acta Astronáutica, 187, 397-405. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.actaastro.2020.12.051
Primack, J. (2002). Pelted by paint, downed by debris. Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 58(5), 24–25. https://doi.org/10.1080/00963402.2002.11460600
Raik, K. y Järvenpää, P. (2017). A new era of EU-NATO cooperation: how to make the best of a marriage of necessity. International Centre for Defence and Security ICDS. https://icds.ee/en/a-new-era-of-eu-nato-cooperation-how-to-make-the-best-of-a-marriage-of-necessity-2/
Rauta, V. (2020). Towards a typology of non-state actors in ‘hybrid warfare’: proxy, auxiliary, surrogate and affiliated forces. Cambridge Review of International Affairs, 33(6), 868-887. https://doi.org/10.1080/09557571.2019.1656600
Ray, K. y Selvamurthy, W. (2023). Starlink’s role in Ukraine: portent of a space war? Journal of Defence Studies, 17(1), 25-44. https://www.idsa.in/publisher/journal-of-defence-studies/starlinks-role-in-ukraine-portent-of-a-space-war
Reichborn-Kjennerud, E. y Cullen, P. J. (2016). What is Hybrid Warfare? Norwegian Institute of International Affairs, Policy Brief NUPI. https://nupi.brage.unit.no/nupi-xmlui/handle/11250/2380867
Solmaz, T. (2022). ‘Hybrid Warfare’: One Term, Many Meanings. Small Wars Journal. https://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/hybrid-warfare-one-term-many-meanings
Stickings, A. (2020). Space as an Operational Domain: What Next for NATO? RUSI Newsbrief. 40(9). https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/rusi-newsbrief/space-operational-domain-what-next-nato
Townsend, B. (2020). Strategic Choice and the Orbital Security Dilemma. Strategic Studies Quarterly, 14(1), 64-90. https://www.jstor.org/stable/26891884
Triezenberg, B. (2017). Deterring space war: an exploratory analysis incorporating prospect theory into a game theoretic model of space warfare [Tesis de doctorado, the Pardee RAND Graduate School]. https://www.rand.org/pubs/rgs_dissertations/RGSD400.html https://doi.org/10.7249/RGSD400
Trump, D. J. (2017). National Security Strategy of the United States of America. Seal of the President of the United States. https://history.defense.gov/Historical-Sources/National-Security-Strategy/ https://trumpwhitehouse.archives.gov/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/NSS-Final-12-18-2017-0905.pdf
Tucker, P. (2021). Nobody Wants Rules in Space. Defense One. https://www.defenseone.com/technology/2021/05/nobody-wants-rules-space/173870/
United Nations. (2002). United Nations treaties and principles on outer space. United Nations Publication. https://www.unoosa.org/pdf/publications/STSPACE11E.pdf
Van-Puyvelde, D. (2015). Hybrid war – does it even exist? NATO Review. https://www.nato.int/docu/review/articles/2015/05/07/hybrid-war-does-it-even-exist/index.html
Vaynman, J. y Volpe, T. A. (2023). Dual use deception: how technology shapes cooperation in international relations. International Organization, 77(3), 599-632. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0020818323000140
Ween, A., Dortmans, P., Thakur, N. y Rowe, C. (2017). Framing cyber warfare: an analyst’s perspective. The Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation, 16(3), 335-345. https://doi.org/10.1177/1548512917725620
Weissmann, M. (2019). Hybrid warfare and hybrid threats today and tomorrow: towards an analytical framework. Journal on Baltic Security, 5(1), 17-26. https://journalonbalticsecurity.com/journal/JOBS/article/40/info https://doi.org/10.2478/jobs-2019-0002
Whitman-Cobb, W. N. (2024). Commercial space peace theory: economic interdependence and conflict in space in S. N. Pekkanen and P. J. Blount (Eds.), The Oxford handbook of space security (pp. 93-107). Oxford University Press. https://doi.org/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780197582671.013.6
Zenko, M. (2014). Dangerous space incidents. Contingency Planning Memorandum No.21. Council on Foreign Relations. https://www.cfr.org/report/dangerous-space-incidents
Copyright (c) 2025 Perspectives in Intelligence Journal
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.
